So the logic of the burglar argument is shown to be weak. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. The lad said that Suzy and the hired man were up in the hayloftthat Suzy had her dress up and the hired man had lowered his trousers. c. Small-scale, on-the-field aggressive acts serve as triggers for crowd aggression. Record the facts. But it turned out that concrete was available only when mild weather had been predicted. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. Working-class individuals are more often involved in aggressive spectator actions. WebA hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. All of the following are elements of biological literacy EXCEPT: Having read the most important books in biology. In another type of distinction, some explanatory arguments are general, given that they have application to a wide range of possible observable outcomes; others are singular, in that they apply only to a specific outcome. As we have seen in the preceding chapters, the conclusion of a strong induction must fit both the premises and the available background evidence. Sample exercise. Males exhibit higher levels of aggression than females. Can appear to reveal links between two phenomena that do not actually exist. b. punishing all aggressive play c. athletes have higher moral development than nonathletes Improved outcome: An image looking like the outline of the Virgin Mary was seen on the wall of a house, and it remained there when the window of the neighboring house was opened. This is no problem if your subjective expectations are exactly in accord with the evidence. What do structuralism, Gestalt psychology, and Sigmund Freud all have in common? d. a and b e. as a linear function, The general aggression model proposes that the probability of aggression increases because of WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. I do take a lot of vitamin C over the winter and get only one or two colds, though I usually get three or four. c. reactive versus hostile , For years, scientifically trained observers dismissed voodoo death as primitive superstition. c. It must be directed toward a human being. An explanatory hypothesis is a type of hypothesis which is used to test the cause and effect relationship between two or more than two variables. a person's unconscious. You can now see that you squandered your one opportunity. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. . So the scientists are wrong when they reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine! A. b. When I bought the housedespite its terrible conditionthe sellers let slip that someone had died here. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. c. as either reactive or instrumental ], [1001]\begin{bmatrix} If the prior probability of the explanation is extremely low and coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation, judge the logic of the argument to be weak. For a scientific explanation to be testable, it must also be ________. the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? [Hint: First find P2P^2P2. He had a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. The achievement is all the more remarkable when you consider that the mysterious sculptors created their masterpiece millennia before the existence of their subject. This requires imagination in coming up with alternative explanations for the sake of comparison. During an episode of wheezing, they found that the vocal cords, which are located in the airway leading to the lungs, formed almost a complete barricade across the passage. Why do scientists refer to Charles Darwin's ideas about evolution as the theory of evolution? a. instinct theory Structure an explanatory argument, when it would be loyal to do so, as follows: the first premise states that if the explanation is correct, then a specified outcome of it will be observable; the second premise states that the outcome has been observed; and the conclusion states that the explanation is thus correct. Sample answer. For general explanations, the simplest one normally predicts the smoothest curve. Which of the following refers to a broad explanation or group of explanations for some aspect of the natural world that is consistently supported by evidence over time? . Ensure adequate facilities and space. d. Frustration produces physical but not psychological aggression. Cognitive psychology focuses on studying ________. We typically favor the explanations with the highest prior probability. The second premise states that the observable outcome is known to have happenedthat it has been observed. My wife calls mePapa Bear. Men were exposed more frequently to the elements, since they did the hunting and tree cutting. For a fullerand fascinatingaccount of Halleys reasoning, see Ronald Giere. 2) The use and transformation of energy to perform work. Premise 1 is probably true. Complete each The other roots the power of suggestion in physiology: extreme fright and despair disrupt the sympathetic nervous system and paralyze body functions. Which of the following statements is NOT one of their recommendations? After much research, he found that comets with similar orbits had also been observed in 1530 and in 1606. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method causation. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. a. Observable outcome: As my horoscope says, at 3:00 today my bank will call and tell me that they have gone bankrupt and my life savings is lost. One good way to check for simplicitya way typically more useful with singular than with general explanationsis to ask whether the explanation offers only as many explanatory entities as needed. Dr. R.A. Rabinoff, professor of physics at Maharishi International University (MIU), presented a paper titled Effect of Coherent Collective Consciousness on the Weather reporting evidence that the weather could be modified by practicing transcendental meditation (TM). or she may have been secretly using a two-headed coin. I searched the apartment, but it was nowhere to be found. d. irreverent Introspection refers to a process by which someone examines ________ as objectively as possible. The argument might now be clarified as follows: Given that the explanation calls for a uniform decrease in air pressure, it would then predict that if samples were taken at all other altitudes on the Puy-de-Dome, they would be plotted on the graph along a line described by the smoothest curve that can be drawn through the points already there, as follows. Because the observable outcome rules out the leading alternative explanations, its prior probability is far lower than the anecdotal argumentand thus the argument is logically much stronger. For both general and singular explanations, ask whether this sort of explanation makes sensethat is, whether there is a satisfactory conceptual framework for it and whether it is more satisfactory than the alternatives. Step 5. sentence with an appropriate personal pronoun. But eventually, confronted by many cases in which there seemed to be no medical reasons for deaths, anthropologists and psychiatrists came to accept it as a pathology in its own right, linked to the victims belief in sorcery. Due to this defect, it took an especially rich array of observable outcomes and an especially compelling theoretical simplicity for it to gain rational acceptance. Never have. The notes were placed about three-quarters of the way through each book, hard against the spine so that they could not be shaken out. 1. In 1695, Edmund Halley began to ponder whether Newtons account of celestial mechanics was correct and, in particular, whether it applied to the motion of comets. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. These crops are laid down in these sensational patterns by an energy that is of a high level of intelligence. Alas, two British painters finally confessed that they had perpetrated the hoax over a 13-year period simply by pulling around flat, four-foot planks by hand with reins to topple over the stalks. An even subtler example can be found in academic discussions of the theory that punishment motivates learning better than does reward. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. How does Abbys conclusion fare in the face of this alternative explanation? An inactive substance used in controlled experiments to test the effectiveness of another substance; the treatment group receives the substance being tested, and the control group receives the placebo. c. with the intent to harm psychologically. Healthy elderly people who rated their health as poor were two to six times more likely to die within the next four years than those who said their health was excellent. Bottom Line, citing the work of Professor Ellen Idler of Rutgers University. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. No. A biologist was concerned about the environmental effects of an insecticide being used in his area to kill mosquitos that carried equine encephalitis. When he was a young lawyer, Abe Lincoln had to defend a client against a case that seemed to be strongly supported by a list of undisputed facts. In a short paragraph, identify the explanation, discuss why it may be unfalsifiable, and explain how this results in a problem with the first part of the total evidence condition. One morning she wakes up after a late night reading and finds her vision is somewhat blurred; she immediately diagnoses optic neuritis. Women are built for giving birth, and the long haul that involves. , Scientists at the University of Manchester have discovered a distant planet where virtually no one would have expected it to be, orbiting a pulsar star, PSR1829, which was born during a supernova. If vitamin C helps prevent colds, then the group taking vitamin C has substantially fewer colds than the group taking the placebo. No one would have expected a comet in December 1758 unless they were assuming the Newtonian explanation; such an event would have been extremely improbable. It is not likely that we would now call it Halleys sun. e. Follow up. Statistics are used by scientists mainly to determine: Whether differences in results between control and treatment groups is significant and important. The argument concludes with the assertion of the explanation. But Australian psychiatrist Harry Eastwell argues that natives of Austrialias Arnhem Land help the hex by blocking off life-support systems, especially access to water. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. The set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to help researchers gain understanding from the data they gather is called. In this section we will look at the improbability of the outcome. We are the only two people in this apartment. A scientific theory is supported by testable and reproducible data. The explanation must be sufficiently probable. If there is good reason to expect it anyway, then the explanation is doing no work and receives no logical support. For explanatory arguments there are two main parts to the total evidence condition: the outcome must be sufficiently improbable and the explanation must be sufficiently probable. a. assertive behavior. d. They see it as part of their role. The second part of the total evidence condition focuses on the probability of the explanation. More subtle examples are easy to find. Lack noticed that on an island shared by two species of finches, ones beak was markedly smaller than the others. Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. It makes no statement with respect to causation. A. When established scientists reject offbeat theories, defenders of such views love to cite these cases. Dont worry about whether the outcome has much likelihood of being true (since that has to do with the truth of premise 2, not with the logic of the argument). The sentence A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets will appear in December 1758 is the observable outcome, that which the explanation enables us to predict and to better understand. Also termed a theory or an explanatory hypothesis. [6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. So far as I know, officials have not used backward code words in their public speeches, so the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. But it is highly probable, whether my theory is true or false, that the reviews will be good or bad or somewhere in between. correlated, but not causal. There are two types of hypothesis. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. That would tend to imply that the damned thing blew up. , Woman interviewed on TV: At first I heard a funny roar. 1 Definitions In this instrument: chronic renal failure means: (a) having a glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for a period of at least 3 months; or (b) a need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation) for treatment of complications of decreased glomerular filtration rate Which of the following has scientific investigation shown to be LEAST reliable in criminal prosecutions? 1. It is freeloading; so it deserves no credit when the outcome comes true. The oracle tended to utter solemn pronouncements of a very unspecific sortfor example, I see grave misfortune in your future. It was almost inevitable that such a vague prediction would come true. Ideally, the explanation contains a cohesive and cogent understanding of the origins of the problems, the conditions that perpetuate them, the obstacles interfering with their solution, and the resources available to address them. In the late 1950s, a doctor reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association that stomach ulcers could be effectively treated by having a patient swallow a balloon connected to some tubes that circulated a refrigerated fluid. An engaging and more detailed account of this experiment can be found in Keith Arnolds Pascals Great Experiment,. e. a and c, General strategies for controlling spectator aggression include which of the following? What is the prior probability of this alternative? b. personal beliefs and attitudes But this does not make the special-powers explanation more probable than the deception explanation; it simply enlarges the deception. Then it is a deductive argument and commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent. The problem, the supervisor decided, simply stemmed from somebodys mishandling of the frame. Personal Finance Semester 1 Test - Mrs. Ellio, John Lund, Paul S. Vickery, P. Scott Corbett, Todd Pfannestiel, Volker Janssen, The Language of Composition: Reading, Writing, Rhetoric, Lawrence Scanlon, Renee H. Shea, Robin Dissin Aufses, Eric Hinderaker, James A. Henretta, Rebecca Edwards, Robert O. Self. serves here as an explanation of the otherwise unpredictable appearance of the comet on Christmas Day of 1758. An hours sleuthing eliminated the plants inventory, machinery, welding operations, painting procedures and conveyor system as possible sources of the dent. A. But this explanation has an exceedingly low prior probability. Said author Delgado, We have been conned. WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? MUST: WebA hypothesis is a potential answer to the question, one that can somehow be tested. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. a. how to be rough and tough without getting thrown out of the game. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. Sample answer. The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. And the argument concludes that the explanation is thus true. This disregard for weather extended even to the pouring of concrete. A 17-pound meteorite of unknown origin was found in Antarctica. Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. My heads-tossing student may have been skillful, or she may have gotten lucky . Which aspect of the scientific method occurs first? He had a military carriage, however, and regulation side-whiskers. One variable is manipulated, while others are held constant. Newsweek, Sample answer. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. Aggression is detrimental to performance. It includes the presumption of causation. WebShort Answer. Also termed a theory or an explanatory hypothesis. Webe. Hypotheses are guesses; theories are correct answers. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. Any unfalsifiable explanation is in principle unable to satisfy the improbable-outcome criterion and can never be the conclusion of a sound explanatory argument. Web16.4 Summary of Chapter Sixteen. I was being more careful about my health because I was engaged in the experiment. Both a body of knowledge and an intellectual activity encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. Young women purchase fewer. In an experiment, the group of subjects not exposed to the treatment being studied but otherwise treated identically to the experimental group. He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. Write an expression for the general or nth term, an,a_{n},an, for the geometric sequence. It is not offered as a reason to believe that the water boiled quickly. A later investigation showed that there was indeed a correlation between TM and warmer weather, but an even stronger correlation between TM and the preceding afternoons forecast of warmer weather for the next day. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Then it is an explanatory argument. And by using a double blind test, the alternative is ruled out that the data were being interpreted differently for each group. Hypotheses and theories are not derived from observed facts, but invented in order to account for them. 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